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Woelk: CU needs best game yet to stick with 'Horns
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Nobody -- at least nobody willing to wager a few bucks on the game -- expects the Colorado Buffaloes to win today.
Texas is ranked No. 5 in the nation for a reason. Actually, for about 22 reasons. The Longhorns are big, fast and strong. They are not only talented at every position on the field, they are deep. The Longhorns' second team would contend in plenty of conferences; the first team might be as good as any group in the nation.
The Buffs, meanwhile, are young and beat up. They've lost a pair of starting offensive linemen in the last two weeks, and attrition across the board -- from injuries to ineligibility -- has taken a toll on a team that wasn't exactly overflowing with depth in the first place.
It's enough of a difference that oddsmakers are calling the Longhorns two-touchdown favorites, a number that would be much larger if the game weren't on the Buffs' home turf.
The Longhorns also come to town with a slight chip on their shoulder. As crazy as it may sound, UT has spent the last few months flying under the radar -- at least as much under the radar as the nation's No. 5 team can be.
When the season began, the chatter around the Big 12 centered on Oklahoma and Missouri. Oklahoma was just about everyone's pick to win the Big 12 South. Missouri, with its high-octane offense, was everyone's pick to win the North and challenge OU for the Big 12 title.
And the Longhorns? Well, they were picked to do what they almost always do -- beat everyone except OU, win 10 games and play second fiddle in the big picture.
(Statistical tidbit: For those of you hoping the Longhorns will look past Colorado today because Oklahoma is next on UT's schedule, think again. Texas is 8-2 in the last 10 games before the Oklahoma contest.)
Thus far this year, however, the Longhorns have not displayed even the slightest hint of playing second fiddle to anyone. They've scored 52 points in three of their four wins (42 in the other) and their defense has been outstanding: sixth in the NCAA in points allowed (onlythree touchdowns given up this year) and second in the nation against the run (just 52.2 yards per game).
So what chance do the Buffs have?
The same they had a year ago when No. 3 Oklahoma rolled into town (coincidentally, also the week before the Oklahoma-Texas tilt).
A puncher's chance. A chance to put their name on the already lengthy list of upsets this year in college football. The same chance Oregon State had against Southern Cal; the same chance Ole Miss had against Florida.
Certainly, it will take a near-perfect game, something the Buffs haven't come close to putting together yet this year. For starters, that means no turnovers on offense and eliminating big plays against the defense and special teams.
Easy to say, hard to do.
The Buffs have already turned the ball over eight times this year (four fumbles, four interceptions), and opponents have converted those turnovers into 28 points. Meanwhile, CU's defense or special teams have given up a scoring play of at least 40 yards in every game this season.
If those numbers pop up again early in the game, CU fans might be exiting Folsom in time to catch the Dodgers-Cubs on TV.
Game plan we'd love to see develop today?
Run the ball. Just a gut feeling here, but we won't be surprised if this is the week Darrell Scott makes his "impact" debut for the Buffs. The running back just about everyone in the nation wanted -- including the Longhorns -- has been hampered by a slow start in camp and injuries thus far.
But word is Scott enjoyed a solid week in practice and is raring to go. If the Buffs can hit Texas with a healthy dose of Speedy Stewart and Scott, they can control the clock.
Of course, establishing a running game behind a patchwork offensive line will be a monumental task. But it still might be the Buffs' best hope, particularly if it means taking a little pressure of quarterback Cody Hawkins -- and it would also open up the opportunity for young Hawk to work CU's play-action passing game. (Another gut feeling here: watch for a solid game from young Hawk.)
Defensively, the task is simple, at least in name: control quarterback Colt McCoy.
It's not often you see one of the nation's best passers also lead his team in rushing, but that's exactly what McCoy is doing. The Longhorns have struggled to find an every-down running back (it's why they desperately wanted Scott), but McCoy thus far has filled in nicely as UT's top running threat.
In tests against two quality opponents this year, the Buffs earned one passing grade and flunked another.
Today, they face their toughest test yet.
It doesn't mean the Buffs have to be perfect -- but they do have to put forth their best effort yet in order to have that puncher's chance.
Posted by fhskiing on October 4, 2008 at 12:28 a.m. (Suggest removal)
Cody will struggle early. The defense will revive itself, and if Texas isn't leading by 21 points at half, CU stands a chance. CU will begin to figure it out in the second half. It'll be a barn-burner down to the wire, but a key return by J. Smith will set up the go ahead score in the 4th Quarter. CU 31-27. Go Buffs!
Posted by mgmtgrad on October 4, 2008 at 1:24 a.m. (Suggest removal)
I find it amusing that in the past article yesterday, people were comparing Cody to Colt; one is supported by an offensive line with experience and depth, the other by youth with starters already out for the season due to injuries. As stated above.
But, there is a reason they actually play the games, last year’s upsets that occurred week after week and last week’s upsets proves that any team can win on any given day. Are the odds against CU? YES.
But that seems to be when upsets happen in around the nation college football and why we fans still believe and watch the games.
I’m turning in because I believe that against the odds CU still has chance, it just depends on which team on both side show up, i.e. OU and ISU last year.
It would not hurt for J Smith to make a couple of good returns and no turn overs.
The fact that Colt is their leading rusher with less then 300 yards in 4 games, does say something about their lack of a running game.
White at WVU was much more of a runner and could throw a good ball too.
Marcus J
Posted by hound397 on October 4, 2008 at 6:12 a.m. (Suggest removal)
Going to be a tough struggle today against the "Burnt Orange Step Child of the South". No doubt we will have to play a near flawless game on both sides of the ball or Texas will walk through Folsom on the way to the annual loss to OU. I am afraid that we are just too depleted along the offensive line to establish the run that will be needed to keep the game close. Hopefully Hawk can use this adversity to rally the team.
GO BUFFS!
Posted by rnorthro14 on October 4, 2008 at 7:37 a.m. (Suggest removal)
Marcus J
While Colt McCoy isn't quite up to the level of Pat White in running ability, White has NOTHING on Colt in terms of passing ability. Colt McCoy is a very good passing QB.
Posted by bzainthemd on October 4, 2008 at 9:16 a.m. (Suggest removal)
Hey we can beat anyone and we can lose to anyone. It depends on what team shows up. We cannot play like we did against FSU. I think this team bounces back and plays a great game. A win is very possible here. Parity in college football is at its highest in years. Let's rock Folsom Field. Go Buffs!
Posted by phxbuff on October 4, 2008 at 10:45 a.m. (Suggest removal)
fhskiing - How did you come up with that score? I hope you are right.
mgmtgrad - Not that it really matters, but Pat White is a terrible passer. He is all about the run, just like Vince Young.
The upset sounds great and I am all for it, but I really have a bad feeling about this one.
Posted by flabuff227 on October 4, 2008 at 11:07 a.m. (Suggest removal)
keep your "bad feeling" and run with it.
Colt is not a game changer, it depends on how the surrounding underachievers play around him.
Posted by mgmtgrad on October 4, 2008 at 12:09 p.m. (Suggest removal)
I understand that White does not have the arm that Colt has, but his combine yardage and long runs allowed him to force the D to watch for both. All I've read so far is that Texas isn't the running school they have been in the past.
Someone on the other article stated that it's going to be windy today in Boulder, which could help CU against a passing team.
And to quote another, hit Colt hard enough a couple of times and he starts to struggle.
Let's hope our patch work of an O-line can give our running backs a chance to control the clock.
Marcus J
Posted by oz_in_cali on October 4, 2008 at 12:11 p.m. (Suggest removal)
Hopefully Cody can stay away from making some of the bad throws he made last week. As bad as the score looked, and as dissapointing as that loss was, the dissapointment was made worse by the fact that in spite of how bad it looked, CU played pretty much toe-to-toe with FSU for the entire game (with the exception of that run where FSU ran off the TD-Safety-FG combo successively). Other than that run it was actually a pretty tight game. Add to that, the fact that we should have probably been winning at the time of that run (a couple of drops on balls that could have easily scored), and the loss of Miller and any other team would easily buckle-under. I'm not predicting a win, but I will go out on a limb and predict a surprise. The Buffs will show up and play strong. I predict we will see the Buffs most solid performance so far this season. Will it be enough? Not sure, Texas is the real deal. But if it is, it will be tons bigger than last year's win against the Sooners.
At the time I write this, next week's opponent KU, is struggling against the Cyclones in Ames. If our Buffs can pull off the upset in Boulder it sets the stage for a game in which the Buffs would go from being a beaten team badly in need of a win, to overachievers heading into the rest of this brutal stretch of games with some much needed swagger and confidence.
GO BUFFS!!! LETS SHOCK THE WORLD!!!
Posted by archalon on October 4, 2008 at 4:38 p.m. (Suggest removal)
CU controls the clock, plays big on D, play action is effective and they have less than 2 turonvers.
Leading 24-20 with 3 minutes to play,the CU defense steps in from of a McCoy wobbler, returns for the td and seals the victory, 31-20.
Dream ? maybe. or it could be a vision and Im the next Nostradamus.
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