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Woelk: No reason Buffs can't take big step forward
The general consensus among folks who follow Colorado football is that 2009 should be a breakout year for Dan Hawkins' crew.
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The team will consist entirely of Hawk's players, the high-profile recruits he's brought in will all have at least a year in the program under their belts, and the schedule shakes out nicely. CSU, Miami (Ohio) and Wyoming are included in the non-conference lineup, and the Big 12 road schedule has just one bear of a game (Texas), with the other three at very winnable places (Kansas State, Iowa State and Oklahoma State).
It has all the makings of a season with victories in the double digits.
This year, however, CU faithful are hemming and hawing, pointing to a difficult schedule. The consensus has been that we will see improvement from the Buffs, but it might not show up in the win column.
Um, sorry folks. That's how teams are judged: wins and losses. You can talk improvement until the cows come home, but fact is, thereare a lot of unemployed coaches out there whose teams improved but still lost too many games.
The breakdown is easy:
Last year's CU team finished the regular season 6-6. For Colorado to legitimately boast to be an improved team this year, the Buffs need to finish at least 7-5.
Seven wins would be a step forward. Anything less ...
Well, it wouldn't be an improvement.
But we're also of the mind that there's a difference between an improved season and a good season.
A good season for the Buffs this year? We'll draw the line at 8-4 with at least a mid-tier bowl invite.
But, say the doubters, eight wins against a difficult schedule might be asking a little much.
Nonsense. Here's the Buffs' path to eight regular season victories:
Aug. 31, vs. Colorado State -- The games in this series haven't been decided by more than a touchdown in the last six years. That streak ends this year as the Buffs flex their muscles against their little brothers from Fort Fun. CU 31, CSU 10
Sept. 6, vs. Eastern Washington -- The Eagles are ranked No. 7 in the FCS preseason polls. This much is guaranteed: every player on the team that remembers Montana State won't be taking EWU lightly. CU 27, Eastern Washington 13
Sept. 18, West Virginina -- Hello real world. The Mountaineers bring a talent-laden, experienced bunch to Boulder for a nationally televised night game. The atmosphere will be electric, but it won't be enough to shock WVU. West Virginia 24, Colorado 19
Sept. 27, Florida State (at Jacksonville) -- Hawkins still hasn't recorded a "signature" road win at Colorado. This is the perfect place to put one of those on his resumè. (For those of you who insist it's a neutral site, tell that to the 60,000 Seminole fans who will be in attendance). CU 24, Florida St. 19
Oct. 4, Texas -- Strictly in terms of talent up and down the roster, there's no way Colorado should beat Texas. But the Buffs have a secret weapon -- Mack Brown is still coaching the Longhorns. This one will be a lot closer than most folks think. Texas 31, Colorado 27
Oct. 11, at Kansas -- CU's Hawkins is still kicking himself over letting this one get away a year ago. The Jayhawks enter the year with big plans, but this will be just one of the many signs for KU folks that last season was an aberration. CU 17, Kansas 13
Oct. 18, Kansas State -- The Wildcats manhandled the Buffs a year ago. Colorado gets to return the favor this year as the clock on Ron Prince's time in Manhattan begins to tick. CU 33, Kansas St. 21
Oct. 25, at Missouri -- This is the one team against which the Buffs looked horribly overmatched last season. It will be closer this year, but the end result will be the same. Missouri 39, Colorado 22
Nov. 1, at Texas A&M -- The Buffs have historically played well at A&M, and they've won three of the last four games in the series. This is a game they'll likely be favored to win -- but they'll have one stumble before going on a season-ending roll. Texas A&M 23, CU 17
Nov. 8, Iowa State -- The Buffs gave one away in Ames last year. They won't have forgotten. CU 31, Iowa State 21
Nov. 15, Oklahoma State -- The Buffs have momentum, homefield advantage and they're smelling a nice bowl trip. CU 24, Oklahoma State 14
Nov. 28, at Nebraska -- The Huskers will be playing for pride; the Buffs will be playing for their eighth win. Pride and Pelini take a back seat. CU 29, Nebraska 24
There you go. Eight wins means a nice berth in the Alamo Bowl against ...
Dec. 29, vs. Michigan -- A surprising season for the Buffs ends with a game against a team that has a disappointing start under new head coach Rich Rodriguez. We'll let you pick the score.


Posted by Saheeb on August 23, 2008 at 12:28 a.m. (Suggest removal)
I like it! I think the pieces are in place, now we just need some experience. I believe there will be signs of real speed returning and playmakers emerging and the talent level rising for sure. It's just how much the inexperience hurts us this year and if Cody progresses further. I like a couple of small things too; Josh Smith listed first on the punt and kick return chart and the fact that teammates are calling Aric Goodman "money." JFly is going to break a few and they have to find ways to get the ball in his hands more. I hope we get a reliable kicker in Goodman too. Eberhart was pretty darned good last season, actually. But, he could NEVER hit the first FG in any game. For some reason, long or short, he always lined up or struck the ball wrong and just couldn't hit the first one. That hurt us in terms of momentum, and score, in several games. But he nearly always hit his kicks after that first one, again, long or short. I hope Goodman can deliver consistency and range this year. Go Buffs. Hope you're right, Neill!
Posted by BuffMan6236 on August 23, 2008 at 12:46 a.m. (Suggest removal)
9-3, we will beat Texas. By then DS and RP will be flying and that will free up hawkins for a consistent passing game.
LB's are going to need to help put pressure on QB's.
I'll take a Holiday Bowl spanking though of a surprising UCLA over a flying circus against Miohigan.
Posted by mgmtgrad on August 23, 2008 at 1:09 a.m. (Suggest removal)
I've said it in my posts that I expect an eight win season, but I not too sure of the predictions for the WV game. I believe and feel that game will be the upset that OU was last year.
So, if that does happen which of the predicted wins will be the let down win that keeps us at only eight wins instead of nine or ten?
As long as it's not NU then all is good.
Only time will tell, after all isn't that why they play the games?
However, if CU pulls off an eight or more win season this year, then respect for a program that was once in the dumps will return.
With eight or more wins that include a couple of key wins will increase this years recruiting and then look out. Go Buffs and make us proud.
Marcus J
Posted by bouldabuff on August 23, 2008 at 6:43 a.m. (Suggest removal)
I agree with the 8 wins.
FSU is going to be fired up getting half their team back from suspension - I think that game is a loss.
KU on the road - it will be a close game but not a win.
I think we win two of these three games - WVU, Texas, @Texas A&M.
Posted by montanabuff on August 23, 2008 at 7:03 a.m. (Suggest removal)
Must wins: CSU, Eastern Washington, Kansas State, Iowa State, Oklahoma State.
Most likely losses: West Virginia, Missouri, Texas.
Swing games: Kansas, Florida State, Nebraska, Texas A&M.
In order to get to eight wins, the Buffs will have to win three of the four swing games. Problem is - all four are on the road. Even if Colorado upsets one of the three top ten teams on the schedule, the Buffs would still need to split the four road swing games to get to eight wins.
I'd be content with 7-5 and then a bowl win.
As Dick Van Patten would say: "Eight is enough".
http://www.cuatthegame.com
Posted by Saheeb on August 23, 2008 at 10:46 a.m. (Suggest removal)
montanabuff: I think you have it right with the games that should be wins, losses and the four critical swing games. But, I think Nebraska and Texas A&M, both of which have new coaches, might be slightly more in the potential win column. We could also take FSU since much of their team will not have played much due to suspensions. They could be trying to find their rhythm. And, I agree with many pundits that Kansas will not be as good as last year. So, I think we could take 3 of those 4 swing games and possibly all of them. But, that is a tall order. And dude, making a "Dick Van Patten/Eight is Enough" reference? Whoa, you must be an old guy like me! I bet that went right over most everyone's heads....:)
Posted by GoldenBoy on August 23, 2008 at 10:52 a.m. (Suggest removal)
the buffs will beat A&M on the road...
Posted by feardaram on August 23, 2008 at 11:07 a.m. (Suggest removal)
the author honestly feels like eastern washington will score more and give up less points than csu? this can't even be taken seriously. i'm not predicting a csu win or anything, but that's insane.
Posted by usmceric on August 23, 2008 at 11:20 a.m. (Suggest removal)
I fully believe that CU will be better this year, but I have a hard time agreeing with the score predictions listed above. I do not think Kansas was a "one-hit wonder" last year, and KU will take one of those wins away from the listed record. Texas A&M will lose to CU. Lastly, when CU rolls into Lincoln, this game will hinge on who is playing better football at the time. This game is always a toss-up, but I think that knowing how Pelini is and his approach to game preparation, CU will lose this one. This game may not even get into the 20's as far as scoring is concerned due to an improved emphasis on defense this season by some of the teams in the Big XII. Look for a Nebraska score late to seal the victory.
Posted by TallyBuff on August 23, 2008 at 11:28 a.m. (Suggest removal)
I don't get why everyone is so confident about WVU having a strong season. They just went through a nasty transition and have a brand new coach. They strike me as a team about which we know nothing, except that they should not stiink. They might be Terry Bowden's undefeated Auburn club, or Kyle Whittingham's 9-4 Utah club. Who knows.
And I find it odd that there is wide agreement about three home losses. Conventional wisdom about winning says that you start by winning at home. Admittedly, Folsom has not been a scary place to play since Mac resigned, but that is something that Hawk needs to address. We have the mystique of altitude, but we don't have a dominating defense. That's how Mac built success---getting an offense took a long time, but he built a defense after about 4 seasons. The secondary remains a weak spot in Boulder, but that is true throughout the NCAAs.
That said, I like the progress Hawk is making, and disagree with Woelk on his "bottom line" hooey. The bottom line is this: Hawkins has five years to put a winning program in Boulder. Winning more games in '08 than '07 is not the only way to achieve that goal. This is one of those cases where the conventional wisdom is correct: CU might improve, but not in the Wins column. I think they'll go 7-5 this year, and maybe 8-4. But if they go 6-6 I won't be joining Woelk and Tallisal moaning about the bottom line!
Posted by RalphieWyoWyo on August 23, 2008 at 11:35 a.m. (Suggest removal)
This year will be alot like 88'. CU went 8-4. Had a winning conference record and made it to a bowl game. It was the year that all the guys who contributed to the National Championship really grew up. I'm not saying CU will compete for a national championship next year, but I do agree 09' will be the breakout year!
Just remember, Kory Sperring (CSU's only big talent) doesn't play QB and Pelini doesn't have LSU's defensive talent.
Go Buffs!
Posted by Saheeb on August 23, 2008 at 11:41 a.m. (Suggest removal)
TallyBuff: I agree it's not a make or break season. 2009 is the yardstick in my opinion. I agree there will be progress that may not show in the win-loss column this year. I do think we can beat WVU, but Pat White et al are blisteringly fast and will be tough. I do think we lose to Missouri at Boulder but there's a chance we could beat Texas here. Per Eastern Washington, they have a high octane offense and, as noted, are ranked # 7 in their division of play. Sure they're D-II, but with speed Appalachian State showed a smaller school can beat a storied program. I think part of the rationale for predicting a close score is the fact that few D-I teams get up for a game against a D-II program and that will probably be the case for the Buffs.
Posted by buffalo_flyer on August 23, 2008 at 1:54 p.m. (Suggest removal)
Insight Bowl, New Years Eve
Phoenix, AZ
Big-12 #6 vs Big-10 #6
that would be an awesome party
A&M on the road is a definate win
Posted by oz_in_cali on August 23, 2008 at 2:49 p.m. (Suggest removal)
7 or 8 wins? I'll take 'um.
I like the article, but like Tallybuff am not sure I agree with the "bottom line" assessment.
Our team is young and is up against a formidable schedule (which while risky, I personally am thrilled with), and are going to get some nice TV exposure to set the stage for 2009. While I fully expect them to improve in the win column, if we end up 6-6 with losses being close and the team showing growth and character I will have no problem calling the Buffs an improved team.
Like I said, I like the tough schedule. Scheduling like this puts our Buffs in a position to pull off a couple of Thursday night shockers, get on everyone's radar (meaning more TV time) and allow our youngsters to go into league play with some much needed swagger.
The other thing about the tough schedule is that it makes assessing success a little more difficult. I will take a strong performance that results in a close loss against a top 10 team like West Virginia over a blowout against Fort Lewis any day of the week and twice on Sunday.
Kinda goes with the argument raised on another article about the risk associated with playing CSU vs scheduling a more relevant team from a real conference (sorry, lil brother).
There is something to be said for taking on formidable opposition rather than padding your record by acting like a playground bully beatin' on the dorks (like certain other programs which there is no need to name).
We would all do well to remember that the bottom line depends on the value of the currency in question. Given our schedule, I would say that 7 or 8 victories for the Buffs would be worth the same if not more than 9 or 10 wins by a certain other team in the Big 12 North - provided we beat that team on the day after Thanksgiving, which we should, of course).
GO BUFFS!!!
Posted by NJBuff on August 23, 2008 at 3:21 p.m. (Suggest removal)
Lets go Buffs!
Posted by archalon on August 23, 2008 at 5:22 p.m. (Suggest removal)
Im not a fan of Woelk, but he shows his ignorance greatly here.
WVU has turnover at HC and only 2 true offensive weapons, going on the road to a venue they've never played at an altitude they've never played. And the national media agrees that they are the most overrated top 20 team in the country. Ive said it since Feburary, this is CU's breakout party. No way they lose to WVU
RE: Texas, 2 of the 3 youngest teams in the nation are in the big 12 - CU and Texas. A young team with a coach like Brown against an improved CU squad - CU wins homecoming (again)
8 wins ? Id agree. I see 8 +\- 1 game. But who and where, no one knows.
CU will win a game it shouldnt, and lose one it should win. But they'll get 7 victories, 8 if they dont lose the one they should win, and 9 only if MU has a meltdown
Posted by archalon on August 23, 2008 at 5:26 p.m. (Suggest removal)
Well, if Herbstreit says so......
NU scored alot and had alot of yards last year because they HAD TO. Losing by 40+ pts every other week, you throw the ball alot. Duh....
And only a NU fan would claim talent on a defense that showed so poorly last year - 50, 60, 70 pts. is not coaching alone. Its being slow and untalented on D that gets the opposition that many points.
Get real - NU has alot of work to do
Posted by vegasbufffan on August 23, 2008 at 7:47 p.m. (Suggest removal)
Why is NU getting so much attention. Besides overinflated ego's and a large staduim what do they have any more? Their team is as bad as their low academic standards.
CU retired their last two coaches, and the way their new coach is recruiting he will be history too.
Posted by BuffTime on August 23, 2008 at 10:21 p.m. (Suggest removal)
Um, "Skersriseagain"... been missing some of your meds lately?
First off, whether NU "lost by 40" every other week or not, the fact is they were a) scoring a lot AND b)still getting blown out by 20+ points on several occasions! When the end score is more like a video game than a football game, I'm sorry but it's more than just management that's the problem.
And as for your "Academic All-American" rankings, it would be a tad more compelling if the kids were taking those classes at Harvard. I'd still take the student athletes at CU over the NU grads any day.
Posted by vegasbufffan on August 23, 2008 at 11:41 p.m. (Suggest removal)
"Skersise again?, or "Circumcised Again?", an "Academic All American" from Nebraska would not qualify to attend most Big XII schools. Your present Nebraska coach grabbed this year several academic REJECTS from other Big XII schools. Not to mention NU was looking for NCAA approval for a few real border line "students" who obviously had no admission problem under Nebraska's LOW ACADEMIC STANDARDS. Read past issues of the Journal Star from Lincoln may be you would learn something.
As for Ace Hardware Polyester pants "Dr" tom his leadership will bring a few more wins as in the past. Once all the Div.II teams and the likes of San Jose are all lined up to run up the score on, and keep the feeble masses in Nebraska in their customary delusional state of mind.
Posted by olsdaddy777 on August 24, 2008 at 12:04 a.m. (Suggest removal)
Why do all you cu fans want to get rid of the CSU game. Its good for football in this state. Just because CSU beats you half the time doesn't mean you should get rid of the game. Sounds kind of cowardly to me.
Posted by vegasbufffan on August 24, 2008 at 12:05 a.m. (Suggest removal)
Skiersise
Typical corn head fan "keep signing a bunch of prima donna spoiled five stars who can't/wont play as a team"???
Really... Tell that to The five star Marlon Lucky. Without him on the NU roster you would not be here mouthing off like a big shot, because you would not even have a sliver of hope.
Posted by rodrigo on August 24, 2008 at 9:54 a.m. (Suggest removal)
Skers,
In the end, CU fans will put the Buffs' roster up against your crew any day of the year. CU beat NU last year and until NU turns the tables all you are doing is talking.
My recommendation: go away and come back Thanksgiving week, at which time you will have actual on-field results to talk about.
Posted by BuffTime on August 24, 2008 at 11:11 a.m. (Suggest removal)
So, one minute you are touting the "Academic All-Americans" on NUs teams, then the next you are admitting that NU isn't the toughest school around... OK
I' not trying to slam NU. I don't hate Nebraskan's or NU, but they are a football rival to CU. That's it.
As for Cosgrove only getting a high-school coaching gig... did he take over the one that Bo's big brother left behind to take over the defensive coordinator gig at NU? Out with one HS coach in with another... yeah, big upgrade.
And no, I don't think NU's talent level seriously got down to the 115th in Div.1, but I wouldn't go bragging about being the 50th best either.
Posted by 14ers4me on August 24, 2008 at 3:01 p.m. (Suggest removal)
Skers,
Maybe you ought to change your name to something more appropriate until (IF) the Fuskers rise again. Maybe "Wesuckbuthavenothingelsetocheerfor". Until then STFU and go hang out w/ your cornbred friends.
Posted by bufffan8 on August 24, 2008 at 5:14 p.m. (Suggest removal)
Everyone from CO is in a hurry to leave Neb every time they drive thru. We don't look at you because there is really nothing to see. And clearly nothing to do since you are spending two days on a CU page. Go grab some more Lincoln kool aid and come back Thanksgiving week.
Posted by bufffan8 on August 24, 2008 at 5:15 p.m. (Suggest removal)
Also - the word is Huskers. Your keyboard missing the H and U?
Posted by archalon on August 24, 2008 at 5:15 p.m. (Suggest removal)
Jeez, where has Skers found all the time to post so often to this thread ? I didnt even read after the second one
If you want to search my posts and cherry pick arguments, at least read the rest and qoute me correctly. My four years in Lincoln with an inside track to the program you idoloize informs my logic to how the program was run.
Put them on a pedastal all you want in Lincoln - its a false idol and humorous to those of us from Colorado who spent time there playing on the same fields as your Husker idols.
Posted by extrapoint on August 24, 2008 at 8:44 p.m. (Suggest removal)
Herbstreet is Trev Albert's boyfriend
Posted by vegasbufffan on August 24, 2008 at 11:22 p.m. (Suggest removal)
Somebody find CircumcisedAgain a job flipping burgers. Talk is cheap, the facts are The "University" of Nebraska scooped academic rejects from two Big XII schools because standards at Nebraska are low. So you are not kidding any one by boasting about Nebraska, any idiot can get meaningless "high" grades and become an "Academic all American", all they have to do is play ball at nu.
On the other hand I know for a fact TJ Hacket the WR took the same science classes as my daughter, both graduated the same time ( Class of 04 ). She is in med. school he is in the NFL. I can give you actual specifics, you obviously can't.
Call CU elitist, and all I have to tell you in responce is thank you. If you did not have such an inferiority complex you would not hang around here so much, gasping for recognition.
Posted by extrapoint on August 25, 2008 at 8:27 a.m. (Suggest removal)
how does it feel, after all your fine references to be one of the common cretins that brings the pussker average down to that of K State?
Posted by extrapoint on August 25, 2008 at 12:53 p.m. (Suggest removal)
I think he needs to change his name to
"Skersovercompensation"
Posted by InTheBuff on August 25, 2008 at 3:52 p.m. (Suggest removal)
Skers,
Who gives a flying fig what some of your athletes have accomplished in the classroom? No one on this site. Every school will have success stories. The point being made here is that CU has MUCH tougher qualification standards than kNu has. That is a fact. It is also a fact that many of your athletes would not have been admitted to CU. Comparing the qualifications to get admitted between your "school" and ours is like night and day. I realize your sense of entitlement has taken a serious beating since that 62-36 smackdown in 2001. Get over it. Learn to love it. Your team hasn't been the same since that glorious day and it won't be changing anytime soon. As a CU grad and a lifetime fan I am PROUD that your teams fall from grace began with that 2001 butt kicking. Denying that is pointless. Zero Big 12 titles. Setting numerous records for points allowed (how many games have you given up 60 or more?) and two coaches fired. Yes, your once-proud program is unrecognizable. You know it, Fusker fan knows it and we know it. See you 11/28 when the beatdown continues. Until then, go away troll. Go spew your vile w/ Western Michigan.
Posted by 14ers4me on August 25, 2008 at 5:58 p.m. (Suggest removal)
"Come to Grand Island and do something about it?" How old are you-12? Grow up. You're the one on this board spewing about what a great team you have. You know..."riseAgain". Please. Spare me. You aren't even close to "rising again" and the downfall started w/ 62-36. You will see me in Lincoln where I will no doubt be chanting "We don't live in Lincoln" yet again.
Posted by vegasbufffan on August 25, 2008 at 6:04 p.m. (Suggest removal)
Looks like CircumsisedAgain is another nutcase nu you fan like the nu fan who is in trouble with OSU. You definitly have an inferiority complex that needs to be treated.
If you have to go to the early 80's to find the few that have made it from your now dismantled football factory. I have an easy task for you. Name me the hords that have amounted to nothing attending nu... That should keep you off the streets for a year.
Posted by 14ers4me on August 25, 2008 at 6:18 p.m. (Suggest removal)
Vegas,
Where are you watching the game Sunday? I live in Vegas as well.
Posted by vegasbufffan on August 26, 2008 at 12:18 a.m. (Suggest removal)
The Vegas Group:
I understand CU fans are meeting at Indigo Joe's
7260 south Cimarron, Suite 145
Phone 243-5637
Questions call Nathan or Christine 851-5637
Since its labor day weekend I will be out of town, and my daughter is flying to Colorado to see the game.
May be next game we can get to meet.
Posted by vegasbufffan on August 26, 2008 at 12:33 a.m. (Suggest removal)
CircumcisedAgain nu fan,
You must be a kid, I recomend you go impress those who's mental age does not exceed ten.
Posted by vegasbufffan on August 26, 2008 at 1:17 a.m. (Suggest removal)
Circumcised,
Don't mean to burst your bubble kid, but Mr. Okafor had only one offer to take, and that was Nebraska. All other schools rejected him.
If I were you I would not get so excited over a three star that nobody wanted... you may hurt yourself.
Posted by vegasbufffan on August 26, 2008 at 9 p.m. (Suggest removal)
Circumsised,
I am not reading all of your drivel boy. Suffice it to say Scout.com clearly states
Mr Collins Okafor had the following rejections.
IOWA.......... NO OFFER
MICHIGAN...... NO OFFER
STANFORD...... NO OFFER
I don't need to insult you, you are doing a fine job embarrasing yourself.
Posted by 14ers4me on August 26, 2008 at 11:17 p.m. (Suggest removal)
zzzzzzzzzzzzz
Posted by 14ers4me on August 27, 2008 at 1:37 p.m. (Suggest removal)
zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz
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