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Woelk: Big 12 guarantees plenty of surprises this year

College football has reached an entirely new level of absurdity.

Case in point: Kansas coach Mark Mangino will be paid $2.3 million this season. This is the same Mangino who has put exactly two winning records in the books in six seasons at KU, and the same Mangino who has never won so much as a Big 12 North Division title, let alone a conference title.

Of course, nothing should surprise us anymore. Remember, the man Missouri almost fired -- with the idea of replacing him with former CU coach Gary Barnett -- is now a hero in Columbia. Gary Pinkel took the Tigers to the Big 12 title game last year and fans expect him to go a step farther this year.

You know, actually win a conference championship.

Win or lose, however, it doesn't matter in one regard: Pinkel will be guaranteed at least $1.8 million this year, with another $500,000 possible in incentives.

Given those numbers, Colorado's Dan Hawkins -- whose guaranteed money this year is roughly $1 million -- is a bargain.

But the era of rapidly escalating salaries also means an era of rapidly escalating expectations. Athletic directors, boosters and fans have little patience. They expect their million-dollar coaches to produce million-dollar results, overnight.

If not, throw da bums out and pay someone else even more money.

(Here's where we give CU athletic director Mike Bohn a little credit. He's actually paying his current coach, Hawkins, less than the last CU coach, Barnett, was paid. Say what you will, but that's at least a small sign of fiscal responsibility in a world otherwise gone mad. Of course, this much is also certain: if and when the day comes that Hawkins has built a consistent winner in Boulder, the price will either go up dramatically or Bohn will be searching for another coach. That's just the way the world works.)

But even absurd salaries can't take away from the fact that college football is one of the best games going. The tradition can't be beat, the atmosphere in a college stadium on game day is unparalleled, and because there's no national championship playoff at the end of the year, it means every week counts.

No playoff means two 6-5 teams still have something to play for down the stretch. It means those teams' fans can look forward to at least the possibility of a bowl game -- and for lesser-tier programs starving for a little attention, any bowl will do.

It means a great season from opening kickoff.

What to look for this year? We'll keep it in the neighborhood and offer up a prediction for each team in the Big 12:

CU's Hawkins will shun conventional wisdom and go for the gusto on fourth down on a regular basis. Sometimes it will work (remember Oklahoma?) and sometimes it won't (Iowa State anyone?). Fans will praise his courage when it works and curse his foolishness when it doesn't. Neither will sway Hawkins from his strategy.

Kansas fans will wonder where the magic has gone when Mangino's Marvels lose six games this year -- five more than last year. By November, order in Lawrence will be restored, which means KU fans will be looking forward to basketball season.

Missouri will win the Big 12 North, but not before losing at Texas. The Tigers will survive a variety of suspensions and arrests, and immediately after losing in the Big 12 title game, Pinkel will leave Columbia for another job. Then, MU athletic director Mike Alden will spend his time avoiding all calls with "Gary Barnett" on caller ID.

Oklahoma will win the Big 12 title again, by beating Missouri in the title game, again. Then, to keep up with the pattern the Sooners have established over the last few years, they'll forget to show up for their bowl game and will be thumped, again.

Texas Tech, which opens the season No. 12, will win its first eight games, roll up astounding numbers and climb into the top 10 (the Raiders, by the way, open against Eastern Washington). But Mike Leach's team will lose two of its last four -- against Texas and Oklahoma -- and once again be relegated to third in the Big 12 South.

Oklahoma State coach Mike Gundy will not scream at a reporter, "I'm a man. I'm 40." This is because Gundy turned 41 on Aug. 12.

Texas will win 10 games, again, and fail to win the Big 12 South, again. And, Mack Brown will be the highest paid coach in the nation with only one conference title on his résumé -- again.

Baylor will regret that Colorado isn't on the schedule this year. The Bears have won seven Big 12 games in the last five years -- two of them coming at the hands of the Buffs.

Nebraska fans will start the season with great expectations from a man who has been a head coach in exactly one game. By season's end, after the Huskers have lost eight games, Corn fans will be longing for the days of Frank Solich.

Kansas State, the school that recruited 19 juco players this year, will switch affiliations to the Jayhawk Conference and begin next season against Hutchinson, Dodge City, Garden City and Coffeyville.

Iowa State will open the season with a big win over South Dakota State (the Jackrabbits, since you asked), and will beat Nebraska on Oct. 18. But there won't be many other bright spots, and Gene Chizik will be wondering why he ever left Texas.

New Texas A&M coach Mike Sherman will be better than his predecessor (Dennis Franchione), but only slightly. Aggie fans will be wondering why they ever let R.C. Slocum go.

Comments

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Posted by oz_in_cali on August 24, 2008 at 4 p.m. (Suggest removal)

Nice. I especially like the part about Nebraska losing 8 and Iowa State beating Nebraska on Oct. 18. Keep up the good work!

GO BUFFS!!!

Posted by Ralphie2 on August 24, 2008 at 8:23 p.m. (Suggest removal)

Go Buffs!

Posted by GoBuffs07 on August 25, 2008 at 11:35 a.m. (Suggest removal)

not sure why you think hawkins is a bargain at 1mm? What exactly has he done here to deserve more?

Posted by BuffNut99 on August 25, 2008 at 12:23 p.m. (Suggest removal)

Hawkins is a bargain. Period.

Posted by reallifeshocker on August 25, 2008 at 5:49 p.m. (Suggest removal)

mangino is a big guy, very enthusiastic, and a great coach, this is why they gave him such a huge raise. remember, he was still far below .500 when perkins raised the ante to 1.5 mil. kansas has a wealth of rich donors, and getting the crap beat out of them, year in and year out, was getting unbearable. not affording much salve, the basketball dominance was simply expected. they are not like the colorado money; expecting that great things simply must happen, well, just because we're colorado.

Posted by Bufffan62 on August 25, 2008 at 8:36 p.m. (Suggest removal)

What has Hawkins done? Restored great recruiting classes, renewed optimism, won with little talent, brought a good reputation here on his past successes, lead with integrity that makes Buff fans proud!!!!! I for one am enjoying the ride and looking forward to some great college football games in one on the most beautiful venues over the next few years.

Posted by Brosiusjb on August 26, 2008 at 5:30 p.m. (Suggest removal)

Dont count on it. By assuming Kansas will return to it's meager win's and loss's records of the past you are forgetting what they had to come back from. Their turn-around wasn't a one year thing. The fat man had to build a division 1 football team. Mangino got the job after being Oklahoma's O.C. During the first practice he brought along Bob Stoops to use as a consultant for his first workout. Stoops, famously in Lawrence, told him "you have maybe 3 division 1 athletes." The fact that Mangino has been able to build a program in 6 years after Terry Allen tore it down is because he was able to get a lot of talented players. Similar to what has been going on in Colorado. Maybe Kansas is a year ahead of Colorado and two behind Texas Tech but you can't be so dismissive about the job fat man has done building the team. Let's not forget he called the plays for Oklahoma's national title team, so he's no dummy. Save maybe in his lack of knowledge in nutrition. He's pretty fat.

Posted by Realist on August 30, 2008 at 11:40 p.m. (Suggest removal)

Two comments: 1) To predict that Nebraska will lose 8 games is pure nonsense and 2) Despite what has been said about "what has Hawkins done?" the fact remains that he is a loosing coach at Colorado. All the other stuff doesn't matter until he compiles a winning record. Don't hold your breath.

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