To paraphrase Dan Hawkins, the formula is simple. It's the part about following through that gets tough.

To guarantee themselves a bowl berth, the Colorado Buffaloes need a win today at Iowa State and at home on Nov. 23 against Nebraska. That would give CU a 7-5 record and make the Buffs more than attractive enough to earn an invitation to one of the Big 12's seven bowl games (eight if you count the league's automatic BCS berth).

Simple enough, right?

Nope. Not this year. In a season in which the Buffs have been anything but predictable, there's no such thing as simple — not even a win over 2-8 Iowa State, a team that just last week showed what it's capable of doing by beating Kansas State.

At the beginning of the season, a fair number of folks didn't think the Buffs would even have the chance to be in this position with two games remaining. Pessimists predicted four wins, the consensus over-under was five and optimists said six would be the magic number. (As for those of us who called for seven ... the drug screen results will be back from the lab later this week.)

But lo and behold, the Buffs do have a chance for seven wins, although the road has been one that no one could have plotted.

A win over Oklahoma — and a loss to Kansas State. A road win at Texas Tech — and a home loss to Kansas. A blowout win at Baylor — and a blowout loss at home to Missouri.

Which brings us to today's game in Ames.

If you're looking for one game by which to judge this season, one game to measure the Buffaloes, this might just be it.

Not because of the opponent. The Buffs have played — and beaten — better teams.

But given everything that's at stake, from bowl eligibility to a statement that this team has indeed taken a significant step forward, today is the day the Buffs need to prove it.

No, the Buffs' season won't be over if they lose. They'll still have the season-ending matchup with Nebraska remaining, plus the outside chance of a bowl game if they can finish with a 6-6 record.

Neither would a loss today completely negate a claim to at least a measure of improvement from last season.

But the Buffs have lost three of their last four, with last week's 55-10 pounding at the hands of Missouri still fresh in everyone's mind.

They need to reverse the momentum today. They need to take advantage of the opportunities in front of them and make a season-ending push rather than continue to stumble down the stretch.

When the season began, Dan Hawkins was still looking for a signature win that would prove his team had moved forward. The win over Oklahoma appeared to fit that bill.

But today, the Buffs face a statement game. They need to send a clear message that when so much is at stake, they can rise to the occasion.

Today, we'll see just what the Buffs are made of.